What poll/survey evidence suggests will happen when Tory members have to choose between Badenoch and JenrickKemi Badenoch is now the favourite. This is what the ConservativeHome survey of Tory members on Sunday suggested would happen if she went head to head with Robert Jenrick in the final ballot – Badenoch winning with a 20-point lead.
Survey of Tory members on leadership candidates Photograph: ConservativeHomeConHome surveys of Tory members have a good record of predicing the winner, although in the last two contests they overstated the extent to which Boris Johnson and Liz Truss (both the rightwing candidate in the final two) were ahead.
YouGov did a proper poll of Tory members just before the conference. It also suggested Badenoch would beat Jenrick but by a smaller margin – by 54% to 46%.
Polling of Tory members on leadership Photograph: YouGov