Brexit deal hurting UK-EU goods trade, and it’s getting worseRed tape on British businesses created by the Brexit trade deal has led to a sharp fall in UK-EU goods trade, a new report shows.
Academics at Aston Business School have analysed the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on UK-EU trade relations – and found that trade is down by over a quarter.
They say:
The findings reveal a sharp decline in both UK exports and imports with the EU, underscoring the enduring challenges posed by Brexit on the UK’s trade competitiveness.
Between 2021 and 2023, monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU, the report shows.
Photograph: Aston Business SchoolIt also shows there has been a significant reduction in the range of goods the UK trades with the EU, due to the “profound and ongoing stifling” effects of the TCA.
This includes a “significant decline” in consumer goods exports to the EU and corresponding UK imports, which suggests the UK is dropping out of EU value chains.
However, the UK remains dependent on the EU for intermediate and capital goods.
And worryingly, these problems are expected to intensify.
The report says:
The study highlights that the negative impacts of the TCA have intensified over time, with 2023 showing more pronounced trade declines than previous years. This suggests that the transition in UK-EU trade relations post-Brexit is not merely a short-term disruption but reflects deeper structural changes likely to persist.
The key problem is that the TCA, agreed on Christmas Eve 202 by Boris Johnson’s government, has created many non-tariff measures (NTMs) – such as checks on goods – which have gummed up the flow of trade.
Agriculture and food products exports have been particularly impacted, the report shows.
Last night, we reported that planned post-Brexit checks on fruit and vegetables brought into Britain from the EU have been delayed for the third time, amid concerns from suppliers that they could lead to higher prices for shoppers.