SummaryIf you’re just joining us, here’s a roundup of the key developments:
Hurricane Idalia is forecast to reach Category 3 strength – classified as a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph) – before it is predicted to slam into the Big Bend region on Florida’s Gulf Coast early Wednesday. It was upgraded to a Category 2 storm late on Tuesday afternoon with winds strengthening to 105 mph (165 kph).
At 8 pm EDT Tuesday, Idalia was about 155 miles (250 kilometers) west-southwest of Tampa, the National Hurricane Center said. It was moving north at 16 mph (26 kph)
States of emergency have been declared in Florida, North and South Carolina and Georgia. Residents of vulnerable coastal areas in Florida have been ordered to evacuate, with governor Ron DeSantis warning: “You really gotta go now. Now is the time.” In total, 28 of the state’s 67 counties are under evacuation orders.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has called Idalia “an unprecedented event” since no major hurricanes on record have ever passed through the bay abutting the Big Bend, where the state’s northern panhandle curves into the Gulf side of the Florida Peninsula.
Surge warnings have been posted for hundreds of miles of shoreline, from Sarasota to the sport fishing haven of Indian Pass at the western end of Apalachicola Bay. In some areas, the surge of water could rise 10 to 15 feet (3.0 to 4.6 m), the hurricane center said.
Florida’s Gulf Coast along with southeastern Georgia and eastern portions of North and South Carolina could face torrential rains of 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) through Thursday, with isolated areas seeing as much as 12 inches (30 cm), the hurricane center also warned.
A tornado watch has also been issued for parts of Florida, including Tampa and Gainesville, and will remain in place until 6am EDT on Wednesday. The National Weather Service said those areas could also expect “isolated hail up to half inch size possible”.
US president Joe Biden said he and DeSantis were “in constant contact,” adding that he had assured the governor federal disaster assistance would remain in place for as “long as it takes, and we*ll make sure they have everything they need.”
Idalia also caused heavy rains in Cuba on Monday and Tuesday, leaving the tobacco-growing province of Pinar del Rio underwater. More than 10,000 people were evacuated to shelters or stayed with friends and relatives as up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain fell. More than half of the province was without electricity.
Key events
Show key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this feature
More than 30,000 utility workers have been gathering to make repairs as quickly as possible in the Idalia’s wake.
An electrical line technician walks among hundreds of electrical line trucks at Duke Energy’s staging location in Sumterville, Florida on Tuesday. Photograph: Stephen M Dowell/APAnd about 5,500 National Guard troops have been activated.
A rare blue supermoon could worsen the effects of Hurricane Idalia, experts have told Sky News, by making high tides and higher and flooding potentially worse.
“I would say the timing is pretty bad for this one,” Brian Haines, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office in Charleston, South Carolina, said.
King tides are higher-than-normal tides that are caused by the extra gravitational pull of the moon and sun, usually during a new or full moon.
The blue supermoon will be closest to Earth on Wednesday night US time, when parts of Charleston could be underwater according to Haines.
Photograph: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty ImagesMany school districts as well as several colleges and universities have cancelled classes and closed campuses through Wednesday due to the approaching storm.
The University of Central Florida in Orlando urged staff and students to “remain indoors and off the roads” while the University of North Florida in Jacksonville said students were “advised to avoid any outdoor activity tomorrow”. Classes were expected to resume as normal on Thursday at both universities.
Florida State University in Tallahassee has said its campus will be closed through Friday.
This is Helen Livingstone taking over the blog from my colleague Lois Beckett.
Tornado watch issued for parts of Florida, including Tampa and Gainesville
It’s official:
As residents evacuate Florida’s Cedar Key, some B&B owners are staying put
As local and state officials implore residents to evacuate from areas in Idalia’s path, some are staying put, including some B&B owners and staff on the picturesque island town of Cedar Key.
CNN reports that Heather Greenwood, the manager of Cedar Key Bed & Breakfast, said she “not only wanted to provide a place for news crews to stay but wanted to help others she knows are staying in town.
“I’m here and I’m available to help them as much as I can,” she told CNN, noting that “the house is at the highest point on the island and has been secured”, and that she had filled all the bathtubs with water.
Meanwhile, Andy Bair, owner of the Island Hotel in Cedar Key, told the Associated Press that he intended to “babysit” his bed-and-breakfast, which predates the civil war. The building has not flooded in the almost 20 years he has owned it, not even when Hurricane Hermine flooded the city in 2016, he said.
“Being a caretaker of the oldest building in Cedar Key, I just feel kind of like I need to be here,” Bair said. “We’ve proven time and again that we’re not going to wash away. We may be a little uncomfortable for a couple of days, but we’ll be OK eventually.”
Idalia ‘likely to become a major hurricane soon’, tornado watch expected in Florida
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center suggests that Idalia will likely soon become a “major hurricane”, defined by the center as a category 3 or above, with winds of 111mph or higher.
But for now, as WeatherNation reports, it’s still a category 2.
Meanwhile, meteorologists are reporting that a tornado watch will likely be issued for parts of Florida.
NEW: A #tornado watch will likely be issued for western Florida south of Gainesville as #Idalia approaches.
Increasing low-level helicity, or twist, will help individual cells within Idalia’s spiral rain bands to rotate thanks to changing winds with height. pic.twitter.com/2tx5EEer5J
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 29, 2023There’s already dramatic footage from earlier today in Florida:
🌪👀🌪
WOW!
Hurricane Idalia producing multiple vortices this afternoon near 2 PM in Boca Brande.
Can’t tell if they reached the surface, but nonetheless, impressive!
All due to Hurricane Idalia swirling off the SW Florida coast.
📸: Milagros Rivera@winknews @NWSTampaBay pic.twitter.com/BpOYLjy2kD
— Greg Rule (@WXRules) August 29, 2023Idalia headed for ‘one of the last truly natural places’ in Florida
If you’re reading about Hurricane Idalia’s path, and wondering what exactly Florida’s ‘Big Bend’ region is, the Associated Press has more detail:
Florida’s Big Bend is one of the last truly natural places in the state. It’s not Disney World, it’s not South Beach. This is where people go to hunt alligators, fish for tarpon and search for scallops in the shallow waters …
The Big Bend is where the peninsula merges into the Panhandle, just southeast of the capital, Tallahassee, and well north of the Tampa metro area. Hurricane Idalia would be the first major storm to hit there since Hurricane Easy in 1950, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This is where people go to appreciate nature and be left alone.
… The National Weather Service in Tallahassee called Idalia “an unprecedented event” since no major hurricanes on record have ever passed through the bay abutting the Big Bend region.
Evacuated plane in Florida records St Elmo’s fire: report
In Tampa, Florida, a plane being evacuated from an air force base recorded the eerie purple flicker of St Elmo’s fire or Witch’s fire, AccuWeather reports:
A plane being evacuated from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, FL due to Hurricane #Idalia recorded St. Elmo’s Fire, a lightning-like weather phenomenon which is a coronal discharge of plasma. pic.twitter.com/wPJcNtNfjP
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) August 29, 2023What makes Idalia so potent? ‘Absurdly warm’ water that acts ‘like rocket fuel’
Hurricane Idalia is expected to gain strength as it approaches Florida and the rest of the Gulf Coast, and scientists told the Associated Press the storm is being supercharged by the high temperatures of ocean water.
“It’s 88, 89 degrees (31, 32 degrees Celsius) over where the storm’s going to be tracking, so that’s effectively rocket fuel for the storm,” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. “It’s basically all systems go for the storm to intensify.”
That water “is absurdly warm and to see those values over the entire northeast Gulf is surreal,” said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.
Idalia “stands a chance of setting a record for intensification rate because it’s over water that’s so warm,” said MIT hurricane professor Kerry Emanuel. On Tuesday, only a few places on Earth had conditions — mostly warm water — so primed for a storm’s sudden strengthening, he said.
“Hurricanes get their energy from warm water,” the Associated Press’s Seth Borenstein writes, meaning Idalia is currently “at an all-you-can-eat buffet”.