Labour, and Starmer, suffer sharp fall in popularity since election, poll suggestsEven when Keir Starmer was on course earlier this year to win the election by a landslide, pundits were saying that, given the number of “tough choices” the government would have to take, it would not take long before it became unpopular. Today the polling firm Ipsos has released its latest Political Pulse opinion survey and these predictions have turned out to be accurate; Labour’s ratings have fallen rapidly.
Labour is still much more popular with voters than the Conservative party. But, over the summer, the number of people saying they view Labour, and key figures like Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, unfavourably has risen significantly.
Here are the figures for the Labour party.
Labour favourability ratings Photograph: IpsosHere are the figures for Starmer.
Favourability ratings for Keir Starmer Photograph: IpsosAnd here are the figures for Reeves.
Favourability ratings for Rachel Reeves Photograph: IpsosThe Ipsos polling does not include voting intention (VI). Asking people who they would vote in a general election is rather pointless at this stage in the electoral cycle, and polling companies mostly have not been publishing VI figures. But some in the Labour party may be alarmed by this snippet in Dan Bloom’s London Playbook for Politico.
A More in Common poll shared with Playbook has Labour’s lead down to just 4 (!) points — with the party on 29 percent, Tories 25, Reform UK 18 and Lib Dems 14. An Ipsos tracker adds 46 percent of voters view Starmer unfavorably — up 8 points since August. He never could expect much of a honeymoon.
Ipsos says, at 46%, Starmer’s unfavourability rating is his joint highest as Labour leader. The only other time so many people were saying they were unhappy with his performance was just after Labour lost the Hartlepool byelection in 2021.
But it is not all bad for Labour. Although the Conservative party is slightly less unpopular than it was at the time of the general, the Ipsos figures shows that its recovery still has a long way to go.
Conservative party’s favourability ratings Photograph: IpsosAnd Starmer has a higher net favourability rating than any of the four Tory leadership candidates left in the contest (Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat).
Favourability rating of senior politicians Photograph: IpsosCommenting on the figures, Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, said:
There are some early warning signs in these numbers for Keir Starmer and Labour. Whilst the next general election is several years away – and perceptions of Labour remain stronger than perceptions of the Conservative Party – these figures do represent a sharp drop from those recorded in August.