Moscow denies reports Ukraine has broken through front linesRussia’s defence ministry has denied reports that Ukrainian forces had broken through in various places along the front lines and said the military situation was under control, according to Reuters.
Moscow was reacting after Russian military bloggers, writing on the Telegram messaging app, reported what they said were Ukrainian advances north and south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, with some suggesting a long-awaited counteroffensive by pro-Kyiv forces had started.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had earlier said the offensive had yet to start.
“Statements circulated by individual Telegram channels about ‘defence breakthroughs’ that took place in different areas along the line of military contact do not correspond to reality,” the Russian defence ministry said in a Telegram post.
“The overall situation in the area of the special military operation is under control,” it said in a statement, using the Kremlin’s description of the war in Ukraine.
The fact the Russian ministry felt obliged to release the statement reflects what Moscow acknowledges is a “very difficult” military operation.
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China representative to visit Ukraine and RussiaChina’s foreign ministry has announced that its special representative of Eurasian affairs will visit Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia from Monday in what it calls “an effort to promote peace talks”, Reuters reports.
Xi Jinping, China’s president, had pledged in a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart last month that he would send a delegation to the region to help facilitate peace talks. It was the first time the two presidents had spoken since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In April, a report on Chinese state TV said Xi had told Zelenskiy during their call: “Negotiation is the only viable way out.”
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has issued a combative statement in response to Uzbek and Azerbaijani news websites publishing an article by Andriy Yermak, head of the office of the president of Ukraine. In the course of it, she says:
This libeler (he cannot be called anything else) is unable to accept this inconvenient truth: Russia is a friend and defender of anyone who is interested in its friendship and defence, anyone who does not act antagonistically at its doorstep, or attack its citizens, compatriots, culture or history. There are simply no examples to the contrary.
The fact that our allies are providing platforms for a high-ranking representative of the Nazi authorities in Ukraine to distort the essence of our relations is certainly baffling. We know that the collective west, not hiding its intentions to inflict damage on Russia, would use anyone, including the post-Soviet countries – not actually considering them valuable partners, but springboards for attacks on our country that still have untapped potential as such. But it is precisely the Nazi essence of the current government in Kyiv, sponsored by the west, that has undermined the foundations of European security.
We respect the freedom of the press. However, it is our belief that the information landscape in countries friendly to us cannot be a platform for broadcasting intentionally false and provocative fabrications.
Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and during the course of what it terms its “special military operation” it has passed new laws restricting criticism of the war, and jailed journalists.
Reuters has a quick snap that Turkey’s defence minister, Hulusi Akar, has said that parties to the Black Sea grain initiative are approaching an extension. Reuters reports Akar’s comment was released by his ministry in a statement on Friday, after talks in Istanbul.
The Russian-imposed mayor of occupied Donetsk has reported on Telegram that one person was killed by Ukrainian shelling of the city overnight. Alexei Kulemzin posted “As a result of the shelling of the Kyivskyi district of Donetsk region, a man of 40-50 years old was killed.”
Archie Bland
My colleague Archie Bland looks at what a Ukrainian counter-offensive might mean in practice in today’s First Edition newsletter:
Ukraine’s greatest success of the war so far came when it successfully fooled Moscow into thinking its September attack would come in the south, and not in the northern Kharkiv region. Surprises over timing and location are the most powerful tool at Ukraine’s disposal as it attempts to regain lost territory, break Russian supply lines, and bolster western support for the long war that likely lies ahead. But it is also extremely difficult to maintain.
After the stalemate of winter, Ukraine has talked openly about a planned counteroffensive for months. “We are preparing for it,” Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in April. “It will happen.” But yesterday, he suggested that despite endless speculation about the timing, his country’s forces were not yet ready.
Ukrainian commanders have also said that Kyiv lacks vital weapons for the new push – but there are also reasons to be sceptical. The Economist’s defence editor Shashank Joshi wrote on Twitter that “Of course this is what you’d say if the counter-offensive was about to begin,” appending a shrug emoji. And it is always useful for Ukraine to increase pressure for more western military hardware.
“Secrecy is very, very important,” the Guardian’s defence editor Dan Sabbagh said. “It’s essential to the success of what happens next. In Russian, it’s called ‘maskirova’ – the military concept of operational security and secrecy, but also active deception about what to expect. So we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen or when.”
With a 900-mile frontline that divides occupied eastern territory roughly the size of Portugal from the rest of Ukraine, there are no shortage of possible sites for the attack. But there is a relatively brief list of options both viable enough and valuable enough to be plausible.
“The ‘route one’ option, and the most obvious strategic imperative, is to cut the “land bridge” to Crimea,” Dan said. That would severely hamper supply lines to Russian troops in the rest of Ukraine as well as being a humiliating blow for Putin. “But the obvious counterpoint to that is that the geography is perfectly obvious to the Russians as well. They have been preparing for a possible attack and they are very well dug in.”
There are other options available. “They could also try to attack Crimea by crossing the Dnieper River further west,” Dan said. “But the Dnieper is a formidable, wide river that has already hurt the Russians when they were forced to give up Kherson.”
Also possible is a counterattack in Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region, where Russia has the upper hand after long and bitter fighting – but Ukraine made its first significant gains in months this week.
Finally, the Ukrainians could seek a breakthrough in the northern province of Luhansk – more sparsely defended, and providing a route to Russian-held cities in the Donbas. But there is less obvious strategic value in that territory. “And it’s quite close to Russia proper, so it would be easier to bring in reinforcements,” Dan added.
You can read more here: Friday briefing – What will Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive look like?
And you can sign up for our daily briefing email here.
Ukraine’s defence ministry has issued some statistics about air attacks on Kyiv. The Ukrainian capital has faced 851 hours and 38 minutes of air alarms (the equivalent of just over 35 days) since 24 February 2022, the ministry said. It also states that “not a single missile or drone has reached its target” for over two months now thanks to air defence efforts.
740 air alarms have gone off in Kyiv since February 24, 2022. In total, the alarms have lasted 851 hours and 38 minutes.
The guardians of Kyiv’s skies have been operating flawlessly for over two months – not a single missile or drone has reached its target. pic.twitter.com/4CbBtyIVTk
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 12, 2023Rodion Miroshnik, formerly the self-styled ambassador to Russia of the Luhansk People’s Republic, has posted on Telegram that “the situation on the frontline in the north-west of the LPR has not changed significantly”.
Tass quotes the Russian-imposed official as saying: “According to intelligence and satellite surveillance, there are attempts to concentrate [Ukrainian] armoured forces in the Krasnyi Lyman and Kupiansk directions. But so far they are at a distance from the zone adjacent to the line of contact.”
The claims have not been independently verified. Luhansk is one of four partly occupied regions of Ukraine that the Russian Federation has claimed to annex.
According to Reuters, Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko says Kyiv’s backers understand that a counteroffensive “may not result in the complete eviction of Russian troops and the definitive defeat of Russia in all occupied areas.”
“We have to be ready for the war to continue into next year – or it could end this year,” Musiyenko told Ukrainian NV Radio. “It all depends on how the battles develop. We can’t guarantee how the counter-offensive will develop.”
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s Wagner private army which has led the fight in Bakhmut, on Thursday said Ukrainian operations were “unfortunately, partially successful”. He called Zelenskiy’s assertion that the counteroffensive had not yet begun “deceptive”.
‘Strong’ explosion heard in Melitopol – local officialA strong explosion was heard in Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia a short whole ago, according to exiled mayor Ivan Fedorov. Zaporizhzhia is under Russian occupation.
“A strong single explosion in Melitopol. Resounded in the very centre of the city,” Federov wrote on Telegram. He did not provide further details.
Dan Sabbagh
In case you missed this yesterday: Britain has become the first western country to provide Ukraine with the long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles that Kyiv wants to boost its chances in a much-anticipated counteroffensive, prompting a threat from the Kremlin of a military response, the Guardian’s Dan Sabbagh and Luke Harding report.
Hours after Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he needed more western weapons to be confident of a victory this summer, Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, told MPs that the missiles – which cost more than £2m each – were “now going in, or are in the country itself”.
The gift of the missiles was supported by the US, Wallace added, although previously Washington had declined to give Ukraine long-range missiles of its own, fearing that the outcome could escalate hostilities in the 15-month war.
“The use of Storm Shadow will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian sovereign territory,” Wallace told MPs, adding: “Russia must recognise that their actions alone have led to such systems being provided.”
Unnamed Kremlin sources say recent statements by Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” in the Kremlin, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest update on the conflict.
Citing a report by Russian opposition outlet Meduza, the US thinktank noted that the sources said “Prigozhin may have crossed the Kremlin’s “red lines” and may alienate his supporters within the Russian inner circle”.
Moscow denies reports Ukraine has broken through front linesRussia’s defence ministry has denied reports that Ukrainian forces had broken through in various places along the front lines and said the military situation was under control, according to Reuters.
Moscow was reacting after Russian military bloggers, writing on the Telegram messaging app, reported what they said were Ukrainian advances north and south of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, with some suggesting a long-awaited counteroffensive by pro-Kyiv forces had started.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had earlier said the offensive had yet to start.
“Statements circulated by individual Telegram channels about ‘defence breakthroughs’ that took place in different areas along the line of military contact do not correspond to reality,” the Russian defence ministry said in a Telegram post.
“The overall situation in the area of the special military operation is under control,” it said in a statement, using the Kremlin’s description of the war in Ukraine.
The fact the Russian ministry felt obliged to release the statement reflects what Moscow acknowledges is a “very difficult” military operation.
Opening summaryWelcome back to our continuing live coverage of the war in Ukraine. This is Helen Sullivan with the latest.
Out top story this morning:
Moscow has rejected reports by Russian military bloggers and Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin that Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian frontlines in the devastated city of Bakhmut.
“Statements circulated by individual Telegram channels about ‘defence breakthroughs’ that took place in different areas along the line of military contact do not correspond to reality,” the Russian defence ministry said in a Telegram post.
“The overall situation in the area of the special military operation is under control,” it said in a statement, using the Kremlin’s description of the war in Ukraine.
Elsewhere:
Britain’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has confirmed reports that the UK is donating long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. Wallace said Ukrainians will have the “best chance to defend themselves”.
The US ambassador to South Africa has accused the country of covertly providing arms to Russia – a charge that drew an angry rebuke from Pretoria. Reuben Brigety told a media briefing that the US believed weapons and ammunition had been loaded on to a Russian freighter that docked at a Cape Town naval base in December. “We are confident that weapons were loaded on to that vessel and I would bet my life on the accuracy of that assertion,” Brigety said, according to a video of the remarks. “The arming of Russia by South Africa … is fundamentally unacceptable.”
A Ukrainian brigade commander fighting in the ruins of Bakhmut said Russian mercenary forces have stepped up shelling and artillery attacks in recent days and were not facing a munitions shortage, despite its chief’s claims to the contrary. Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Thursday that the situation on the flanks near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was unfolding in line with the “worst of all expected scenarios”.
Poland’s defence minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, confirmed that the army was aware of a possible missile heading towards the country in December but failed to inform the government. Poland has been on alert for possible spillover of weaponry from the war in neighbouring Ukraine, especially since two people were killed near the border last November by what Warsaw concluded was a misfired Ukrainian air defence missile.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the country needs more time to prepare for a much-anticipated spring counteroffensive, saying: “We can go forward and be successful. But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.”
Zelenskiy again denied any Ukrainian responsibility for the drone incident over the Kremlin. Russia has accused Washington and Kyiv of masterminding the attack, which it described as an assassination attempt on Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time, and no injuries were caused by the drones.
A Ukrainian drone attacked an oil storage depot in the Russian border region of Bryansk, the local governor has claimed in a post on his Telegram channel on Thursday. There were no casualties after the attack on the facility near the town of Klintsy, owned by Russia’s Rosneft oil company, though one storage tank was partly damaged, the governor, Alexander Bogomaz, said.
Belgorod’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, claimed that seven settlements in the Russian region have been left without electricity after Ukrainian shelling over the border.